24 December 2009

Ahmedabad: Only two candidates. Nitin Pathak seem to have been proved unlucky??

Ahmedabad's golden saga ends. Last time Ahmedabad had unbelievably five seats. And this time? Two only. I predicted three earlier, but it looks impossible now. It seems that Nitin Pathak will really be another unlucky guy ending finally near 24th. Looking at the elimination trends, there is no hope for him now. His only hope is Yamal Vyas's elimination, which has been confirmed now. The million Dollar question is how much Nitin Pathak will get from Yamal Vyas (507 votes now) who is at 29th position. Even if Nitin Pathak gets 100 votes, he will reach at 19th place from current scenario. Currently Shruti is at 19th, Apte is at 20th, Ashok Jain at 21st, and Jay Chhaira at 22nd, who will be already above 700 votes by the time Nitin reaches to 700 at Yamal's elimination, meaning thereby, he will be back to 23rd. And after Yamal, there is no scope at all for him. If Yamal gives him 200 votes, then Nitin Pathak has a chance, otherwise not. OR, he gets enough vote from Yamal that he crosses B K Patel, which is most unlikely.

Why Nitin Pathak can't get very high no. of votes from Yamal? Because, Parag is still live and Parag will not cross quota till Yamal Vyas is eliminated. He must get equally good no. of votes from Yamal. So is for B K Patel. So not all can be transferred to Nitin Pathak. Its a genuine limitation and I can see only possibility of 100 votes to be transferred to Nitin and not more

B K Patel is confirmed. Currently he looks weak and vulnerable because Mumbai guys are overtaking speedily. But he will get equally good from Yamal Vyas and he will remain only claimant for the Nitin Pathak's vote at the time of elimination. So Bhailal Bhai Patel is in safe zone, though I know, he will not start partying till the final result is announced.

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