21 December 2009

One sitting candidate will still sink

  • There are 8 members re-contesting from the sitting members. And all are doing well. They stand from 1 to 10 place in current situation
  • There are 3 seats left. Dhinal Shah is sure, he is on among top fives in the chart, so no one can stop him
  • Now 2 seats left. Nilesh Shah is also in top 7 and he is also sure to win
  • Now one seat left. Zavare is in first 11. Three Pune eliminations will increase his votes, so he is sure to get in the council
  • Now we have no seat left, but some very strong candidates left, like Nihar Jambusria, Tarun Ghia and Durgesh Buch
  • Out of these three minimum one will surely make it
  • So if one will make it, one sitting will surely sink
  • Gujarat has 5 candidates to be eliminated before Durgesh Buch
  • These all 5 together carry around 1900 votes. The only person left from Gujarat will Durgesh. So whatever chunk out of these Durgesh get, can put Durgesh above Tarun or Nihar or some other sitting candidate. And that will be really game. Only one from Tarun or Nihar can come. So either of them once eliminated, will give the other a very large chunk of votes in subsequent preferences. So here lies the fun. Who reaches where. So the rank in first round is not important, how the elimination round works, there lies the key.
  • B K Rathi's elimination can move B M Agarwal upwards. Then one elimination from BM Agarwal and Praful Chhajed can move one out of these two upward, and if they move him above any current candidate can cause elimination of another person feeling safe himself.
  • So its interesting to see how things move. But its sure except one or two, all the sitting candidates are safe. Cheers!!

22 comments:

  1. Anonymous11:07 PM

    which Nilesh?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous11:08 PM

    Who Nilesh?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous11:13 PM

    Dear Ashwin,

    It seems your preference is for Durgesh and you are not ready to accept defeat for Durgesh Buch.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous11:18 PM

    I think the elimination round from Gujarat will work like this.. 2nd pref of DVShah, Raju Shah & Ashok Thakkar, most of them will not be for Durgesh. They will go to Dhinal Shah. From Surat candidates most of them will go to Mumbai candidates. Raju Shah will get a good chunk of 2nd pref votes from Gujarat. So I think Durgesh Buch does not stand chance....

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous11:24 PM

    I fully agree with the views express by the viewer, It seems that Durgesh Buch Will lose the election.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If anyone can read my lines again, I have stated clearly elimination of Tarun or Nihar will push the other above. Mumbai votes will go to Mumbai. So that may lead Nihar or Tarun far above Durgesh. So me not accepting defeat of Durgesh is a really a strange comment. Who know even little about Ahmedabad politics, has never considered me on Durgesh's side atleast. Only that thing prompted me to write this reply.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Nilesh.. Arre Nilesh Vikamsey Bhaiya.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous11:29 PM

    Great Ashwin,

    But what prompted me to write that comment about Durgesh Buch was that he was given undue weightage till now. I also was surprised at the coverage durgesh was getting on ur blog.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous11:31 PM

    Great Ashwin,

    We really appreciate your efforts and unbiased views.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous11:31 PM

    By writing the same , you are clarifying that you are not on durgesh Buch Side?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Anonymous11:35 PM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous11:36 PM

    MY Dear Mr. Nagar,

    One must congratulate the spirit and the sense of the voters, because by all indications they have unconditionally rejected all notorious elements and have very wisely voted for sensible and moderate, yet bright professionals to represent all of us in the council. I hope that the message is received by everyone in the same spirit.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Anonymous11:56 PM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Anonymous11:57 PM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anonymous12:22 AM

    Dear Ashwin

    We are eager for further update.

    please update us the news at their

    ReplyDelete
  16. Anonymous12:26 AM

    This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Anonymous12:27 AM

    Dear Ashwin Bhai
    postions with no of votes

    ReplyDelete
  18. Anonymous12:33 AM

    Hi Ashwin,
    where r u? so gaya kya? v r awaiting updates. what is the counting position?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Anonymous12:36 AM

    Dear Ashwin,

    Any further updates? I understand that counting is over? REquest you to update.

    Congrats for the great professonal work....

    ReplyDelete
  20. Anonymous12:42 AM

    Ashwinbhai,whether counting is over or still going on? we are still awake and waiting for your updates..Please give latest updates..and ya you are doing great work by working independently and not taking side of any candidate...go ahead..

    ReplyDelete
  21. Anonymous12:56 AM

    Good Job by providing such update and view....I appreciate your kind efforts....

    I must say CA web portal has to provide such update of news on election result...so old fashioned way of election results...

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anonymous1:21 AM

    Ashwin,

    Grate Job, Now give the first preferance vote list.

    ReplyDelete

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